HIV prevalence in the US =
1 in 300 people are HIV positive (HIVpos = 0.00333)
{Note: probability of being HIVneg
is 1 - 0.00333.}
Sensitivity [probability that the genetic test will be positive when the individual really has the disease] of ELISA = 99.7% (0.997)
Specificity [probability that
the test will be negative given that the individual does not have the disease]
of ELISA = 98.5% (0.985)
{Note: probability of being
HIVneg but getting a postive ELISA result is 1 - 0.985 .}
What is the probability of being HIV positive (HIVpos) if you test positive on an ELISA (+)?
Bayes' Rule for HIV testing:
Source for testing data: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV_test
© Copyright 2007 Department of Biology, Davidson
College, Davidson, NC 28035
Send comments, questions, and suggestions to: macampbell@davidson.edu